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Baltika cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Krylia Sovetov.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baltika beat Krylia Sovetov 2-0 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.70 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.69 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.89 / defence 0.76 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.89 / defence 1.41, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baltika 61% | Draw 26% | Krylia Sovetov 14%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 18%, Krylia Sovetov 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baltika's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time, and duly kept one.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights