Baltika 2-2 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baltika vs FC Krasnodar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Baltika welcome FC Krasnodar to Rostec Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 October 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Baltika have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baltika at Rostec Arena this season: 3W 1D 1L from 5 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Baltika are significantly better at Rostec Arena than their overall form suggests.
FC Krasnodar — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Krasnodar's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FC Krasnodar's 2.40 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Baltika's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Baltika in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
FC Krasnodar in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 46% versus FC Krasnodar 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baltika 46% | FC Krasnodar 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 0.90 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.801 / defence 0.963 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.206 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.097. FC Krasnodar's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. FC Krasnodar have an above-average attack strength of 1.206 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Baltika games / 41 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baltika 25% | Draw 31% | FC Krasnodar 44%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | FC Krasnodar 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Krasnodar as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baltika 40% | FC Krasnodar 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 25% | Draw 31% | FC Krasnodar 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Baltika 0.90 / FC Krasnodar 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.801 / def 0.963 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.206 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.27
FC Krasnodar xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baltika vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Baltika vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs FC Krasnodar?
Baltika 2 - 2 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Baltika vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Baltika vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 25% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Baltika and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Baltika vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and FC Krasnodar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baltika and FC Krasnodar in?
Baltika (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baltika's attack at 0.80x the league average against FC Krasnodar's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Krasnodar's attack versus Baltika's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
25%
4.01
31%
3.21
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.17
1.27
FC Krasnodar xG
4.01
25%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
7%
14.34
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 14.5 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Baltika and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Baltika and 1.27 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baltika come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 1D 7L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Krasnodar sit at 2.45 PPG from 11 outings (8W 3D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.54 PPG clear of Baltika — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Baltika's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Baltika are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Krasnodar have taken 2.20 points per game from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L).
Goals in Recent Form
Baltika are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.73 scored and 0.45 conceded.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar in 64% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
FC Krasnodar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baltika and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 3W 1D 7L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 8W 3D 0L in their last 11 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 2.20 PPG.
Have Baltika or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 64%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Baltika's record when hosting FC Krasnodar specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Baltika
3
Draws
1
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and FC Krasnodar?
From 4 meetings on record, Baltika have won 0, FC Krasnodar have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when FC Krasnodar 2-2 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 40%, FC Krasnodar 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Baltika and 20% for FC Krasnodar.
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC Krasnodar in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baltika play FC Krasnodar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Baltika's recent matches and 40% of FC Krasnodar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baltika vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Baltika's recent games and 20% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Baltika have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baltika and FC Krasnodar share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 12, as Baltika and FC Krasnodar drew 2-2 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 0.90 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.27 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Baltika beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.21 / defence 0.75, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 25% | Draw 31% | FC Krasnodar 44%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 46%, FC Krasnodar 18%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baltika (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.