Baltika 2-1 Akron – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baltika at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baltika vs Akron fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akron make the trip to Rostec Arena to face Baltika in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Baltika's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Baltika have posted 1W 3D 6L at Rostec Arena — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Rostec Arena this season.
Akron have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Akron, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akron's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Baltika have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Akron in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Baltika lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Akron winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Baltika — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Akron — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 43% versus Akron 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baltika 33% | Akron 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.17 xG and Akron 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.816 / defence 0.983 | Akron attack 0.947 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.201. Data: 42 Baltika games / 42 Akron games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baltika 35% | Draw 33% | Akron 32%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Akron 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baltika as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baltika if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Baltika 60% | Akron 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Akron | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 35% | Draw 33% | Akron 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Baltika 1.17 / Akron 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.816 / def 0.983 | Akron attack 0.947 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Baltika (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Akron xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baltika vs Akron kick off?
Baltika vs Akron kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Akron?
Baltika 2 - 1 Akron.
Where is Baltika vs Akron being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Akron part of?
Baltika vs Akron is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Akron?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 35% chance of winning, Akron a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Baltika the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Akron?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Baltika and Akron will score (BTTS).
Will Baltika vs Akron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Akron?
Record (2 meetings): Baltika 1W | Draws 0 | Akron 1W.
What form are Baltika and Akron in?
Baltika (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Akron (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Baltika's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Akron's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Akron's attack (0.95x) against Baltika's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baltika Win
35%
2.88
33%
3.02
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.29
1.12
Akron xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
10%
10.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Akron?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Baltika and Akron expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Baltika and 1.12 for Akron, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Akron?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baltika come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 18D 10L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Akron sit at 0.90 PPG from 42 outings (8W 14D 20L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Akron is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baltika carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Akron — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Baltika's home form reads 8W 7D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Akron have taken 1.05 points per game from 21 outings (5W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Baltika are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Akron are on 1.12 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akron in 64%.
Defensively: Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Akron
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baltika and Akron in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 14W 18D 10L in their last 42 games (1.43 PPG), while Akron have gone 8W 14D 20L in their last 42 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Akron away?
Baltika's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.48 PPG; Akron away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Baltika or Akron been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Akron in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baltika have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Akron — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Baltika
0
Draws
1
Akron
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Akron?
From 3 meetings on record, Baltika have won 2, Akron have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Akron last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Baltika 2-1 Akron.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Akron?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Akron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 43%, Akron 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Baltika) and 43% (Akron).
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Baltika have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Akron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baltika play Akron?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Baltika's recent matches and 57% of Akron's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baltika vs Akron usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Baltika's recent games and 43% of Akron's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Akron tend to score early?
Baltika have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Akron in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baltika edge out Akron 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baltika beat Akron 2-1 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.17 xG and Akron 1.12 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Baltika beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.82 / defence 0.98 against Akron attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 35% | Draw 33% | Akron 32%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 33%, Akron 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Akron's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.