Baltika vs Akron – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Baltika take on Akron.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akron make the trip to Rostec Arena to face Baltika in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Baltika's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Baltika have posted 1W 3D 6L at Rostec Arena — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Rostec Arena this season.
Akron have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Akron, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akron's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Baltika have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Akron in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Baltika lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Akron winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Baltika — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Akron — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 42% versus Akron 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baltika 34% | Akron 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.19 xG and Akron 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.822 / defence 0.939 | Akron attack 0.904 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.297. Data: 41 Baltika games / 41 Akron games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baltika 34% | Draw 36% | Akron 30%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Akron 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baltika 60% | Akron 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Akron | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 34% | Draw 36% | Akron 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Baltika 1.19 / Akron 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.822 / def 0.939 | Akron attack 0.904 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Akron xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baltika vs Akron kick off?
Baltika vs Akron is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Rostec Arena.
Where is Baltika vs Akron being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Akron part of?
Baltika vs Akron is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Akron?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 34% chance of winning, Akron a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Akron?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Baltika and Akron will score (BTTS).
Will Baltika vs Akron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Akron?
Record (2 meetings): Baltika 1W | Draws 0 | Akron 1W.
What form are Baltika and Akron in?
Baltika (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Akron (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Baltika's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Akron's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Akron's attack (0.90x) against Baltika's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
36%
2.80
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.29
1.10
Akron xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Akron?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Baltika and Akron expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Baltika and 1.10 for Akron, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Akron?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baltika come into this having played 41 games, going 14W 17D 10L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Akron sit at 0.85 PPG from 41 outings (7W 14D 20L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Akron is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baltika carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Akron — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Baltika's home form reads 8W 7D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Akron have taken 1.05 points per game from 21 outings (5W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Baltika are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Akron are on 1.07 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akron in 63%.
Defensively: Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Akron
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baltika and Akron in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 14W 17D 10L in their last 41 games (1.44 PPG), while Akron have gone 7W 14D 20L in their last 41 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Akron away?
Baltika's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.48 PPG; Akron away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Baltika or Akron been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Akron in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Baltika
0
Draws
1
Akron
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Akron?
From 2 meetings on record, Baltika have won 1, Akron have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Akron last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Baltika 0-1 Akron.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Akron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 43%, Akron 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Baltika) and 43% (Akron).
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Baltika have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Akron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baltika play Akron?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Baltika's recent matches and 57% of Akron's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baltika vs Akron usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Baltika's recent games and 43% of Akron's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Akron tend to score early?
Baltika have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Akron in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.