Baltika vs Akhmat – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Baltika take on Akhmat.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Akhmat travel to Rostec Arena to take on Baltika. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Baltika have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Baltika have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baltika's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Rostec Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Akhmat — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Akhmat have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Akhmat have posted 0W 7D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Baltika) versus 1.20 (Akhmat). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Baltika have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Akhmat have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Baltika and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Baltika in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Akhmat in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 40% versus Akhmat 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baltika 32% | Akhmat 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 1.04 xG and Akhmat 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.855 / defence 0.964 | Akhmat attack 0.773 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.293. Data: 37 Baltika games / 37 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baltika 34% | Draw 35% | Akhmat 31%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Akhmat 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Baltika 50% | Akhmat 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 34% | Draw 35% | Akhmat 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Baltika 1.04 / Akhmat 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.855 / def 0.964 | Akhmat attack 0.773 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Akhmat xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baltika vs Akhmat kick off?
Baltika vs Akhmat is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Rostec Arena.
Where is Baltika vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Akhmat part of?
Baltika vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 34% chance of winning, Akhmat a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Baltika and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Baltika vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Akhmat?
Record (4 meetings): Baltika 3W | Draws 1 | Akhmat 0W.
What form are Baltika and Akhmat in?
Baltika (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Akhmat (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baltika's attack at 0.85x the league average against Akhmat's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Baltika's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.90
35%
2.88
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Baltika xG
Total xG
2.00
0.96
Akhmat xG
2.90
34%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Baltika and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Baltika and 0.96 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Baltika have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 14W 14D 9L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Baltika, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Akhmat's form line: 10W 14D 13L from 37 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Akhmat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baltika on 1.51 PPG, Akhmat on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Baltika have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
On the road, Akhmat have gone 1W 10D 8L from 19 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Akhmat's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baltika are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.22 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Early Season
Akhmat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baltika and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 14W 14D 9L in their last 37 games (1.51 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 10W 14D 13L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Akhmat away?
Baltika's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 1.58 PPG; Akhmat away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Baltika or Akhmat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Akhmat in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Baltika won 1-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baltika's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Baltika
1
Draws
0
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Akhmat?
From 4 meetings on record, Baltika have won 3, Akhmat have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Akhmat 1-1 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Akhmat?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 42%, Akhmat 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Baltika and 37% for Akhmat.
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Baltika have failed to score in 26% of games; Akhmat in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baltika play Akhmat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Baltika's recent matches and 63% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baltika vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Baltika's recent games and 37% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Akhmat tend to score early?
Baltika have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.