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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Baltika cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Akhmat.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baltika beat Akhmat 2-0 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.26 xG and Akhmat 0.99 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Akhmat landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.83 / defence 0.86 against Akhmat attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baltika 40% | Draw 33% | Akhmat 27%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 23%, Akhmat 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baltika's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.

Akhmat's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baltika (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Akhmat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights