Arsenal Tula 0-0 Khimki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arsenal Tula at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arsenal Tula vs Khimki fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Arsenal Tula welcome Khimki to Stadion Arsenal. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arsenal Tula stand at 2W 2D 5L from 9 Premier League matches — 0.89 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 2.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.11 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal Tula, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Arsenal, Arsenal Tula have gone 1W 2D 1L this season (4 games, 1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Khimki — All Games: 1W 4D 4L from 9 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.78 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Khimki have posted 1W 0D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.89 PPG (Arsenal Tula) versus 0.78 (Khimki). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Arsenal Tula in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Khimki in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Arsenal Tula 78% and Khimki 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal Tula 78% | Khimki 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal Tula 1.63 xG and Khimki 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal Tula attack 0.998 / defence 1.376 | Khimki attack 0.832 / defence 1.500. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.181. Khimki bring a strong defensive rating of 1.500 — this is suppressing Arsenal Tula's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Arsenal Tula games / 9 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal Tula 44% | Draw 24% | Khimki 32%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal Tula 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Khimki 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Arsenal Tula as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arsenal Tula offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Arsenal Tula 75% | Khimki 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal Tula vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Arsenal • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal Tula 44% | Draw 24% | Khimki 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Arsenal Tula 1.63 / Khimki 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal Tula attack 0.998 / def 1.376 | Khimki attack 0.832 / def 1.500 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Arsenal Tula (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Arsenal Tula xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Khimki xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal Tula vs Khimki kick off?
Arsenal Tula vs Khimki kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Stadion Arsenal.
What was the final score in Arsenal Tula vs Khimki?
Arsenal Tula 0 - 0 Khimki.
Where is Arsenal Tula vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arsenal.
What competition is Arsenal Tula vs Khimki part of?
Arsenal Tula vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal Tula vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal Tula a 44% chance of winning, Khimki a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Arsenal Tula the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal Tula vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Arsenal Tula and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal Tula vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal Tula and Khimki?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arsenal Tula and Khimki in?
Arsenal Tula (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.11 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Khimki (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Arsenal Tula's attack rating (1.00) and Khimki's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus Arsenal Tula's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Tula Win
44%
2.27
24%
4.14
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Arsenal Tula xG
Total xG
2.98
1.35
Khimki xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
6%
16.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal Tula vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Arsenal Tula and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Arsenal Tula and 1.35 for Khimki, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal Tula vs Khimki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Arsenal Tula come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 2D 5L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Arsenal Tula is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khimki sit at 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (1W 4D 4L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Arsenal Tula on 0.89 PPG, Khimki on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Arsenal Tula's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Khimki have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal Tula come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Arsenal Tula are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 0.89 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arsenal Tula have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Khimki in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal Tula
Blended
Khimki
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal Tula and Khimki in coming into this match?
Arsenal Tula have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Khimki have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal Tula at home or Khimki away?
Arsenal Tula's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal Tula at home: 1.25 PPG; Khimki away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Arsenal Tula and Khimki runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Arsenal Tula
1
Draws
0
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal Tula and Khimki?
From 2 meetings on record, Arsenal Tula have won 1, Khimki have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal Tula and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2021, when Khimki 1-2 Arsenal Tula.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal Tula and Khimki?
Arsenal Tula have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arsenal Tula are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal Tula 75%, Khimki 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Arsenal Tula and 75% for Khimki. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal Tula home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal Tula play Khimki?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Arsenal Tula's games and 50% of Khimki's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arsenal Tula vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Arsenal Tula's matches and 75% of Khimki's.
Do Arsenal Tula and Khimki tend to score early?
Arsenal Tula have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Khimki in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Arsenal Tula's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal Tula and Khimki finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Arsenal, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal Tula 1.63 xG and Khimki 1.35 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Arsenal Tula fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Khimki landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal Tula attack 1.00 / defence 1.38 against Khimki attack 0.83 / defence 1.50, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal Tula 44% | Draw 24% | Khimki 32%, with Arsenal Tula to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal Tula 78%, Khimki 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal Tula's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Khimki's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arsenal Tula 0.89 PPG, Khimki 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arsenal Tula (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Khimki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.