Akron 0-5 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Akron vs Zenit encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Solidarnost Samara Arena plays host to Akron versus Zenit in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 18 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Akron (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Akron, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akron at Solidarnost Samara Arena this season: 1W 1D 4L from 6 home games — 0.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.67 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Solidarnost Samara Arena this season.
Zenit have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Zenit are 1.10 PPG clear of Akron in recent Premier League fixtures (2.30 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Akron goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Zenit goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akron 46% versus Zenit 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akron 62% | Zenit 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akron 1.04 xG and Zenit 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akron attack 1.054 / defence 1.472 | Zenit attack 1.297 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.189. Zenit's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Zenit have an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — the away xG of 2.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Akron games / 41 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akron 15% | Draw 22% | Zenit 64%. Fair-value odds: Akron 6.67 | Draw 4.55 | Zenit 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Akron 67% | Zenit 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akron vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Solidarnost Samara Arena • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akron 15% | Draw 22% | Zenit 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 59% | xG Akron 1.04 / Zenit 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: Akron attack 1.054 / def 1.472 | Zenit attack 1.297 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Zenit (64%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Akron xG
Expected Goals
2.27
Zenit xG
59%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akron vs Zenit kick off?
Akron vs Zenit kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Akron vs Zenit?
Akron 0 - 5 Zenit.
Where is Akron vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Samara Arena.
What competition is Akron vs Zenit part of?
Akron vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akron vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Akron a 15% chance of winning, Zenit a 64% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akron vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Akron and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Akron vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akron and Zenit?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Akron and Zenit in?
Akron (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Zenit (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Akron vs Zenit?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Akron's attack at 1.05x the league average against Zenit's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zenit's attack (1.30x) against Akron's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 2.27.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 0-2 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
15%
6.80
22%
4.63
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Akron xG
Total xG
3.31
2.27
Zenit xG
6.80
15%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
10%
9.69
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
2%
65.87
22%
4.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akron vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Akron and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Akron and 2.27 for Zenit, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Akron vs Zenit?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Akron's recent record stands at 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Akron is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit, meanwhile, have gone 10W 2D 1L across 13 games — 2.46 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 1.31 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akron heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Akron have managed 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.15 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Zenit's away record stands at 4W 1D 1L across 6 trips, a 2.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Akron are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.31 scored and 0.46 conceded.
Defensively: Akron have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Zenit in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akron
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akron and Zenit in coming into this match?
Akron have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Zenit have gone 10W 2D 1L in their last 13 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akron at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akron at home: 0.67 PPG; Zenit away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Akron or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akron have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Zenit in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Zenit go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zenit won 0-5 on 18 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Akron have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zenit — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Akron
1
Draws
3
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akron and Zenit?
From 5 meetings on record, Akron have won 1, Zenit have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Akron and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Akron 0-5 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Akron and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Akron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akron 67%, Zenit 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Akron and 50% for Zenit. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zenit in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akron home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akron play Zenit?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Akron's recent matches and 17% of Zenit's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Akron vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Akron's matches and 50% of Zenit's.
Do Akron and Zenit tend to score early?
Akron have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Zenit in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zenit run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Akron.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Akron 0-5 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 1.04 xG and Zenit 2.27 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Akron fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Zenit outscored their 2.27 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 1.05 / defence 1.47 against Zenit attack 1.30 / defence 0.73, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akron 15% | Draw 22% | Zenit 64%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 62%, Zenit 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akron's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Zenit's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Akron (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.