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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Rotor Volgograd defy the odds to beat Akron 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rotor Volgograd beat Akron 0-1 at Samara Arena, Final, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 1.42 xG and Rotor Volgograd 1.23 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Akron fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 0.89 / defence 1.37 against Rotor Volgograd attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akron 42% | Draw 26% | Rotor Volgograd 32%, with Akron to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Rotor Volgograd win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 0%, Rotor Volgograd 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Akron arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Rotor Volgograd winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Akron managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rotor Volgograd scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights