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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Rostov edge out Akron 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Rostov beat Akron 2-3 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 1.31 xG and FC Rostov 1.55 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FC Rostov outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 0.86 / defence 1.35 against FC Rostov attack 1.11 / defence 0.99, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akron 29% | Draw 30% | FC Rostov 40%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 61%, FC Rostov 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akron's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Rostov's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Akron 1.22 PPG, FC Rostov 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock. Akron (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Rostov (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights