🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Dynamo edge out Akron 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dynamo beat Akron 2-3 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 1.13 xG and Dynamo 1.62 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Akron beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dynamo outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 0.89 / defence 1.20 against Dynamo attack 1.25 / defence 0.84, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akron 27% | Draw 25% | Dynamo 49%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 58%, Dynamo 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akron's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Dynamo's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Akron (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights