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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as CSKA Moscow edge out Akron 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

CSKA Moscow beat Akron 1-2 at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 0.87 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.40 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 0.89 / defence 1.27 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.96 / defence 0.72, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akron 20% | Draw 35% | CSKA Moscow 46%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 59%, CSKA Moscow 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akron's trading profile (22 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (22 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights