🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Akron at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akron vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Akron welcome Akhmat to Solidarnost Samara Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Akron stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Akron, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Solidarnost Samara Arena, Akron have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Premier League games this season, Akhmat have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Akhmat's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Akron) versus 1.40 (Akhmat). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Akron, 0 for Akhmat and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Akron trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Akhmat trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akron 45% versus Akhmat 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akron 59% | Akhmat 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Akron 1.36 xG and Akhmat 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akron attack 0.923 / defence 1.327 | Akhmat attack 0.797 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.077. Data: 27 Akron games / 57 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Akron 39% | Draw 32% | Akhmat 29%. Fair-value odds: Akron 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Akhmat 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Akron are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Akron offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Akron 50% | Akhmat 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights