Akhmat 3-3 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Akhmat at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Krylia Sovetov make the trip to Akhmat-Arena to face Akhmat in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Akhmat have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Akhmat have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Akhmat-Arena, Akhmat have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Akhmat are significantly better at Akhmat-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Krylia Sovetov (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Krylia Sovetov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Krylia Sovetov have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Akhmat, 1.40 for Krylia Sovetov — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Akhmat 4W, Krylia Sovetov 3W, 2D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Akhmat half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Krylia Sovetov half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 57% versus Krylia Sovetov 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 40% | Krylia Sovetov 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.29 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 1.197 / defence 0.925 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.926 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.280. Krylia Sovetov's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 35 Akhmat games / 35 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 37% | Draw 35% | Krylia Sovetov 28%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Krylia Sovetov 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Akhmat at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Akhmat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Akhmat 50% | Krylia Sovetov 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Akhmat-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 37% | Draw 35% | Krylia Sovetov 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Akhmat 1.29 / Krylia Sovetov 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 1.197 / def 0.925 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.926 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Krylia Sovetov xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Akhmat-Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov?
Akhmat 3 - 3 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat-Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 37% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (9 meetings): Akhmat 4W | Draws 2 | Krylia Sovetov 3W.
What form are Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov in?
Akhmat (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Akhmat's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Krylia Sovetov's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.93x) against Akhmat's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
37%
2.70
35%
2.85
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.38
1.10
Krylia Sovetov xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
8%
12.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.10 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Akhmat's recent record stands at 10W 12D 13L from 35 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Akhmat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Krylia Sovetov, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 16L across 35 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Akhmat against 1.06 for Krylia Sovetov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Akhmat have managed 9W 3D 5L from 17 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Akhmat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Krylia Sovetov's away record stands at 2W 3D 12L across 17 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Krylia Sovetov's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Akhmat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Akhmat are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.14 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Early Season
Krylia Sovetov
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 10W 12D 13L in their last 35 games (1.20 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 9W 10D 16L in their last 35 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Akhmat's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.76 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Akhmat have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Akhmat
3
Draws
3
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 4, Krylia Sovetov have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Akhmat 3-3 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 53%, Krylia Sovetov 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Akhmat) and 59% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: Akhmat keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Krylia Sovetov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Akhmat's recent matches and 41% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Akhmat's recent games and 59% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov finished level at 3-3 at Akhmat-Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.29 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.10 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Akhmat beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Krylia Sovetov outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 1.20 / defence 0.93 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.93 / defence 0.80, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 37% | Draw 35% | Krylia Sovetov 28%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 40%, Krylia Sovetov 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akhmat 1.20 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Akhmat (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.