Akhmat 1-2 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 75% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Akhmat vs Zenit encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Akhmat host Zenit at Akhmat Arena in Premier League (matchday 15). Kick-off is Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Akhmat stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Akhmat's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Zenit have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Zenit have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Zenit are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Akhmat have won 1, Zenit 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2024, ended Akhmat 1–5 Zenit — a Zenit win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Akhmat in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Zenit in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 48% versus Zenit 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 46% | Zenit 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Akhmat surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Zenit have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 0.76 xG and Zenit 2.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.819 / defence 1.408 | Zenit attack 1.423 / defence 0.685. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.299. Zenit bring a tight defence (rating 0.685, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Akhmat's projected output down. Zenit have an above-average attack rating of 1.423, which lifts their away xG to 2.60. Akhmat's defence rating of 1.408 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zenit's projected output up. Data: built from Akhmat's last 44 games and Zenit's last 44.
Result probabilities: Akhmat 7% | Draw 18% | Zenit 75%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 14.97 | Draw 5.46 | Zenit 1.33. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (75%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zenit at 75% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Akhmat's last 10 home games and Zenit's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Akhmat 60% (last 10 home games) | Zenit 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, matchday 15 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 7% | Draw 18% | Zenit 75% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Akhmat 0.76 / Zenit 2.60 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.819 / def 1.408 | Zenit attack 1.423 / def 0.685 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Zenit (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
2.60
Zenit xG
51%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Akhmat vs Zenit FAQs
What time does Akhmat vs Zenit kick off?
Akhmat vs Zenit kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Zenit?
Akhmat 1 - 2 Zenit.
Where is Akhmat vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Zenit part of?
Akhmat vs Zenit is a Premier League fixture (matchday 15) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 7% chance of winning, Zenit a 75% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Akhmat and Zenit will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Akhmat vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 0.82x the league average against Zenit's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus Akhmat's defence, projects 2.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Akhmat's last 44 games and Zenit's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-3 (10.2%), 1-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
7%
14.97
18%
5.46
75%
1.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
10.2%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Akhmat xG
Total xG
3.36
2.60
Zenit xG
14.97
7%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
1.33
75%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
7%
13.50
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
0%
–
35%
2.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 9.0 | 11.7 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Akhmat vs Zenit Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Akhmat and 2.60 for Zenit, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Zenit?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Akhmat come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 11D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Zenit sit at 2.05 PPG from 44 outings (27W 9D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Zenit carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.05 PPG clear of Akhmat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Akhmat's home form reads 5W 7D 10L across their last 22 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Zenit have taken 2.00 points per game from their last 22 away games (13W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Akhmat are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 1.89 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Zenit in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
Zenit
Blended
Akhmat (Home) vs Zenit (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Akhmat
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Akhmat vs Zenit Form FAQs
What form are Akhmat and Zenit in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 11W 11D 22L in their last 44 games (1.00 PPG), while Zenit have gone 27W 9D 8L in their last 44 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.00 PPG; Zenit away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Akhmat or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akhmat have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Zenit in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Zenit have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 May 2024, when Zenit won Akhmat 1-5 Zenit.
Akhmat's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Akhmat
1
Draws
7
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Akhmat vs Zenit H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Zenit?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Akhmat have won 2, Zenit have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Zenit last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Zenit 3-2 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 59%, Zenit 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Akhmat) and 50% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: Zenit in 41%; Akhmat have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Akhmat vs Zenit Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Akhmat and Zenit matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Akhmat's recent matches and 50% of Zenit's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Akhmat and Zenit matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Akhmat's recent games and 50% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Zenit matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Akhmat's recent matches and 77% of Zenit's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zenit edge out Akhmat 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Akhmat 1-2 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 0.76 xG and Zenit 2.60 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.82 / defence 1.41 against Zenit attack 1.42 / defence 0.69, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 7% | Draw 18% | Zenit 75%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 46%, Zenit 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Zenit's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.