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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Akhmat cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ural.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Akhmat beat Ural 2-0 at Akhmat Arena, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.33 xG and Ural 1.06 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ural landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Ural attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akhmat 40% | Draw 33% | Ural 27%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 46%, Ural 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akhmat's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Ural's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Akhmat 0.76 PPG, Ural 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akhmat win broke the near-deadlock. Akhmat (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights