🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Akhmat defy the odds to beat Rubin 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Akhmat beat Rubin 2-1 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.21 xG and Rubin 1.53 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.87 / defence 1.13 against Rubin attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akhmat 26% | Draw 32% | Rubin 41%, with Rubin to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Akhmat win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 46%, Rubin 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akhmat's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Rubin's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Rubin arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Akhmat winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights