Akhmat 2-1 FC UFA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Akhmat at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Akhmat vs FC UFA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Akhmat host FC UFA at Akhmat Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Akhmat stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat's home record at Akhmat Arena: 6W 0D 3L from 9 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC UFA — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC UFA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC UFA's away record: 1W 3D 5L from 9 road trips in Premier League this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game.
Akhmat are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Akhmat, 1 for FC UFA and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with FC UFA winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Akhmat trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
FC UFA trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Akhmat 61% and FC UFA 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 61% | FC UFA 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.58 xG and FC UFA 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 1.112 / defence 1.074 | FC UFA attack 0.693 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.120. FC UFA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Akhmat's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Akhmat games / 18 FC UFA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 54% | Draw 27% | FC UFA 19%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | FC UFA 5.26. Akhmat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Akhmat as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Akhmat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Akhmat 56% | FC UFA 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs FC UFA | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 54% | Draw 27% | FC UFA 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Akhmat 1.58 / FC UFA 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 1.112 / def 1.074 | FC UFA attack 0.693 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
0.83
FC UFA xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs FC UFA kick off?
Akhmat vs FC UFA kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs FC UFA?
Akhmat 2 - 1 FC UFA.
Where is Akhmat vs FC UFA being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs FC UFA part of?
Akhmat vs FC UFA is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs FC UFA?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 54% chance of winning, FC UFA a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs FC UFA?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Akhmat and FC UFA will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs FC UFA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and FC UFA?
Record (1 meetings): Akhmat 0W | Draws 0 | FC UFA 1W.
What form are Akhmat and FC UFA in?
Akhmat (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. FC UFA (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 1.11x the league average against FC UFA's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC UFA's attack versus Akhmat's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.72
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.41
0.83
FC UFA xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
24%
4.26
4%
25.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs FC UFA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Akhmat and FC UFA expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Akhmat and 0.83 for FC UFA, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs FC UFA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Akhmat come into this having played 18 games, going 9W 0D 9L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC UFA sit at 0.89 PPG from 18 outings (3W 7D 8L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC UFA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of FC UFA — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Akhmat's home form reads 6W 0D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Akhmat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC UFA have taken 0.67 points per game from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Akhmat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Akhmat are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; FC UFA are on 0.94 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; FC UFA in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
FC UFA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and FC UFA in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 9W 0D 9L in their last 18 games (1.50 PPG), while FC UFA have gone 3W 7D 8L in their last 18 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or FC UFA away?
Akhmat's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 2.00 PPG; FC UFA away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Akhmat and FC UFA runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Akhmat
0
Draws
1
FC UFA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and FC UFA?
From 2 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 1, FC UFA have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and FC UFA last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2022, when Akhmat 2-1 FC UFA.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
FC UFA see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 56%, FC UFA 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Akhmat) and 33% (FC UFA).
On the defensive side: FC UFA in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / FC UFA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play FC UFA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Akhmat's recent matches and 44% of FC UFA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Akhmat vs FC UFA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Akhmat's recent games and 33% of FC UFA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and FC UFA tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, FC UFA in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Akhmat edge out FC UFA 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat FC UFA 2-1 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.58 xG and FC UFA 0.83 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 1.11 / defence 1.07 against FC UFA attack 0.69 / defence 1.24, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 54% | Draw 27% | FC UFA 19%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 61%, FC UFA 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
FC UFA's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Akhmat arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.