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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Akhmat defy the odds to beat FC Rostov 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Akhmat beat FC Rostov 2-1 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.29 xG and FC Rostov 1.30 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.82 / defence 0.99 against FC Rostov attack 1.22 / defence 1.07, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akhmat 33% | Draw 33% | FC Rostov 34%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Akhmat win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 43%, FC Rostov 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akhmat's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

FC Rostov's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Akhmat 1.04 PPG, FC Rostov 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akhmat win broke the near-deadlock. Akhmat (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights