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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Akhmat defy the odds to beat Dynamo 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Akhmat beat Dynamo 2-1 at Akhmat-Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.31 xG and Dynamo 1.34 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 1.03 / defence 1.21 against Dynamo attack 1.07 / defence 0.93, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akhmat 35% | Draw 30% | Dynamo 36%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Akhmat win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 48%, Dynamo 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akhmat's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Dynamo's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Akhmat winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights