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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Akhmat and CSKA Moscow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 27, as Akhmat and CSKA Moscow drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 0.87 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.23 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.18 / defence 0.66, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akhmat 23% | Draw 35% | CSKA Moscow 42%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 45%, CSKA Moscow 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akhmat's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights