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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Vizela and AVS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Do Vizela, Relegation Round, as Vizela and AVS drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.93 xG and AVS 0.84 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. AVS outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against AVS attack 0.69 / defence 1.42, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vizela 63% | Draw 22% | AVS 16%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 57%, AVS 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vizela's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

AVS's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vizela 0.74 PPG, AVS 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vizela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. AVS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights