Vizela 0-1 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vizela at 37%, yet in-form Arouca provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vizela vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Do Vizela plays host to Vizela versus Arouca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 5 November 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vizela have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vizela have posted 2W 4D 4L at Estádio Do Vizela — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Arouca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Arouca are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Vizela 2W, Arouca 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Vizela winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Vizela half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 58% versus Arouca 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 42% | Arouca 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.02 xG and Arouca 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.737 / defence 0.989 | Arouca attack 0.873 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.076. Vizela's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Vizela games / 45 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 37% | Draw 31% | Arouca 32%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Arouca 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vizela at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Arouca (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vizela if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Vizela 50% | Arouca 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 37% | Draw 31% | Arouca 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Vizela 1.02 / Arouca 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.737 / def 0.989 | Arouca attack 0.873 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Vizela (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Arouca xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Arouca kick off?
Vizela vs Arouca kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Arouca?
Vizela 0 - 1 Arouca.
Where is Vizela vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Arouca part of?
Vizela vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 37% chance of winning, Arouca a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Vizela and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Arouca?
Record (2 meetings): Vizela 2W | Draws 0 | Arouca 0W.
What form are Vizela and Arouca in?
Vizela (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Arouca (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vizela's attack rating (0.74) and Arouca's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.87x) against Vizela's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
37%
2.72
31%
3.19
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Vizela xG
Total xG
1.95
0.93
Arouca xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
15%
6.90
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Vizela and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Vizela and 0.93 for Arouca, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vizela's recent record stands at 10W 15D 20L from 45 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 20L across 45 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Vizela against 1.04 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vizela have managed 5W 8D 9L from 22 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 3W 9D 10L across 22 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vizela are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 0.96 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Arouca in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 10W 15D 20L in their last 45 games (1.00 PPG), while Arouca have gone 11W 14D 20L in their last 45 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Arouca away?
Vizela's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.05 PPG; Arouca away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 5-0 on 28 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vizela
1
Draws
3
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Arouca?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 2, Arouca have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Arouca 5-0 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 50%, Arouca 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Vizela) and 50% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Vizela have failed to score in 41% of games; Arouca in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vizela's recent matches and 59% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Vizela's recent games and 50% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Arouca tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Arouca in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Arouca defy the odds to beat Vizela 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat Vizela 0-1 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.02 xG and Arouca 0.93 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vizela fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.74 / defence 0.99 against Arouca attack 0.87 / defence 1.00, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 37% | Draw 31% | Arouca 32%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Arouca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 42%, Arouca 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arouca's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 1.00 PPG, Arouca 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Arouca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.