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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 9

Kick-off

Sun 26 Oct 2025

18:00

Venue

Estádio João Cardoso

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

13%

Tondela

7.63

27%

Draw

3.75

60%

Sporting CP

1.66

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 1

14.7%

Away win

Most likely

0 – 2

12.9%

Away win

1 – 1

10.6%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.72

Tondela xG

Total xG

2.48

1.76

Sporting CP xG

13%
27%
60%
TondelaDrawSporting CP

7.63

13%

Home win

3.75

27%

Draw

1.66

60%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

45%

Over 2.5

2.22

55%

Under 2.5

1.82

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

44%

BTTS Yes

2.25

56%

BTTS No

1.80

Clean Sheet

17%

Tondela

5.79

48%

Sporting CP

2.06

Win to Nil

2%

Tondela

44.16

29%

Sporting CP

3.42

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.4 14.7 12.9 7.6 3.3 1.2
1 6.1 10.6 9.3 5.5 2.4 0.8
2 2.2 3.9 3.4 2.0 0.9 0.3
3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1
4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
5

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.724
λ Away (xG) 1.756
Total xG 2.480
League avg home goals 1.333
League avg away goals 1.203
Tondela attack strength 0.730
Tondela defence strength 1.079
Sporting CP attack strength 1.352
Sporting CP defence strength 0.744
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 8 / 42