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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Tondela cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Moreirense.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tondela beat Moreirense 2-0 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 1.02 xG and Moreirense 1.31 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Tondela beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Moreirense landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.62 / defence 1.19 against Moreirense attack 0.97 / defence 1.11, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tondela 29% | Draw 28% | Moreirense 43%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Tondela win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 50%, Moreirense 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tondela's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not.

Moreirense's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Tondela winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Tondela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights