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Prediction vindicated as Guimaraes edge out Tondela 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat Tondela 0-1 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 1.00 xG and Guimaraes 1.09 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tondela fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.67 / defence 1.13 against Guimaraes attack 0.73 / defence 1.11, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tondela 31% | Draw 34% | Guimaraes 36%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 70%, Guimaraes 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tondela's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 70% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Guimaraes's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Guimaraes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights