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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Casa Pia edge out Tondela 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Casa Pia beat Tondela 1-2 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 0.89 xG and Casa Pia 1.27 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.56 / defence 1.17 against Casa Pia attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tondela 26% | Draw 29% | Casa Pia 45%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 57%, Casa Pia 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tondela's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.

Casa Pia's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tondela 0.64 PPG, Casa Pia 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Casa Pia win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights