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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Tondela cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Arouca.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tondela beat Arouca 3-1 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 1.14 xG and Arouca 1.43 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Tondela beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.59 / defence 1.21 against Arouca attack 0.94 / defence 1.38, drawn from 15/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tondela 29% | Draw 28% | Arouca 43%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Tondela win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 60%, Arouca 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tondela's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Arouca's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tondela 0.60 PPG, Arouca 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tondela win broke the near-deadlock. Tondela (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.43 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights