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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 28

Kick-off

Fri 3 Apr 2026

20:30

Venue

Estádio José Alvalade

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

71%

Sporting CP

1.40

18%

Draw

5.42

10%

Santa Clara

9.94

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

14.2%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 0

13.5%

Home win

3 – 0

10.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.11

Sporting CP xG

Total xG

2.75

0.64

Santa Clara xG

71%
18%
Sporting CPDrawSanta Clara

1.40

71%

Home win

5.42

18%

Draw

9.94

10%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

42%

BTTS Yes

2.41

58%

BTTS No

1.71

Clean Sheet

53%

Sporting CP

1.90

12%

Santa Clara

8.22

Win to Nil

38%

Sporting CP

2.66

1%

Santa Clara

81.66

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.4 4.1 1.3 0.3
1 13.5 8.7 2.8 0.6 0.1
2 14.2 9.1 2.9 0.6 0.1
3 10.0 6.4 2.1 0.4 0.1
4 5.3 3.4 1.1 0.2
5 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.106
λ Away (xG) 0.641
Total xG 2.747
League avg home goals 1.513
League avg away goals 1.144
Sporting CP attack strength 1.453
Sporting CP defence strength 0.644
Santa Clara attack strength 0.870
Santa Clara defence strength 0.959
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 60 / 61