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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 16

Kick-off

Sun 28 Dec 2025

20:30

Venue

Estádio José Alvalade

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

70%

Sporting CP

1.43

18%

Draw

5.61

12%

Rio Ave

8.22

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

10.9%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 1

9.6%

Home win

1 – 0

9.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.36

Sporting CP xG

Total xG

3.25

0.89

Rio Ave xG

70%
18%
12%
Sporting CPDrawRio Ave

1.43

70%

Home win

5.61

18%

Draw

8.22

12%

Away win

Goals Markets

83%

Over 1.5

1.20

17%

Under 1.5

5.88

63%

Over 2.5

1.59

37%

Under 2.5

2.70

41%

Over 3.5

2.44

59%

Under 3.5

1.69

23%

Over 4.5

4.35

77%

Under 4.5

1.30

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

53%

BTTS Yes

1.87

47%

BTTS No

2.15

Clean Sheet

41%

Sporting CP

2.42

9%

Rio Ave

10.59

Win to Nil

29%

Sporting CP

3.46

1%

Rio Ave

87.03

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.9 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.1
1 9.2 8.1 3.6 1.1 0.2
2 10.9 9.6 4.2 1.3 0.3
3 8.5 7.6 3.3 1.0 0.2
4 5.0 4.5 2.0 0.6 0.1
5 2.4 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.360
λ Away (xG) 0.885
Total xG 3.245
League avg home goals 1.374
League avg away goals 1.291
Sporting CP attack strength 1.620
Sporting CP defence strength 0.641
Rio Ave attack strength 1.070
Rio Ave defence strength 1.060
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 49 / 49