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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 20

Kick-off

Sun 1 Feb 2026

18:00

Venue

Estádio José Alvalade

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

75%

Sporting CP

1.34

17%

Draw

6.03

9%

Nacional

11.33

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

13.9%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 0

12.1%

Home win

3 – 0

10.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.29

Sporting CP xG

Total xG

2.94

0.65

Nacional xG

75%
17%
Sporting CPDrawNacional

1.34

75%

Home win

6.03

17%

Draw

11.33

9%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

56%

Over 2.5

1.79

44%

Under 2.5

2.27

34%

Over 3.5

2.94

66%

Under 3.5

1.52

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

43%

BTTS Yes

2.34

57%

BTTS No

1.75

Clean Sheet

52%

Sporting CP

1.91

10%

Nacional

9.88

Win to Nil

39%

Sporting CP

2.56

1%

Nacional

111.95

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.3 3.4 1.1 0.2
1 12.1 7.8 2.5 0.5 0.1
2 13.9 9.0 2.9 0.6 0.1
3 10.6 6.9 2.2 0.5 0.1
4 6.1 3.9 1.3 0.3
5 2.8 1.8 0.6 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.291
λ Away (xG) 0.646
Total xG 2.937
League avg home goals 1.557
League avg away goals 1.256
Sporting CP attack strength 1.546
Sporting CP defence strength 0.591
Nacional attack strength 0.870
Nacional defence strength 0.952
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 53 / 53