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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 30

Kick-off

Fri 18 Apr 2025

20:30

Venue

Estádio José Alvalade

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

61%

Sporting CP

1.64

22%

Draw

4.64

18%

Moreirense

5.67

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

10.8%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

10.6%

Home win

1 – 1

10.2%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.95

Sporting CP xG

Total xG

2.89

0.94

Moreirense xG

61%
22%
18%
Sporting CPDrawMoreirense

1.64

61%

Home win

4.64

22%

Draw

5.67

18%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.91

48%

BTTS No

2.09

Clean Sheet

39%

Sporting CP

2.56

14%

Moreirense

7.00

Win to Nil

24%

Sporting CP

4.21

3%

Moreirense

39.69

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.6 5.2 2.5 0.8 0.2
1 10.8 10.2 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.1
2 10.6 9.9 4.7 1.5 0.3 0.1
3 6.8 6.4 3.0 1.0 0.2
4 3.3 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.1
5 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.946
λ Away (xG) 0.941
Total xG 2.887
League avg home goals 1.259
League avg away goals 1.189
Sporting CP attack strength 1.434
Sporting CP defence strength 0.878
Moreirense attack strength 0.902
Moreirense defence strength 1.078
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 63 / 63