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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 4

Kick-off

Sat 30 Aug 2025

20:30

Venue

Estádio José Alvalade

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

54%

Sporting CP

1.84

23%

Draw

4.34

23%

FC Porto

4.42

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.8%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.9%

Home win

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.82

Sporting CP xG

Total xG

2.92

1.09

FC Porto xG

54%
23%
23%
Sporting CPDrawFC Porto

1.84

54%

Home win

4.34

23%

Draw

4.42

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

56%

Over 2.5

1.79

44%

Under 2.5

2.27

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.79

44%

BTTS No

2.26

Clean Sheet

33%

Sporting CP

2.99

16%

FC Porto

6.18

Win to Nil

18%

Sporting CP

5.50

4%

FC Porto

27.29

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.4 5.9 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.1
1 9.9 10.8 5.9 2.2 0.6 0.1
2 9.0 9.8 5.4 2.0 0.5 0.1
3 5.4 6.0 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.1
4 2.5 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.1
5 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.821
λ Away (xG) 1.095
Total xG 2.916
League avg home goals 1.397
League avg away goals 1.217
Sporting CP attack strength 1.588
Sporting CP defence strength 0.814
FC Porto attack strength 1.105
FC Porto defence strength 0.821
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 37 / 37