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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 12

Kick-off

Sun 30 Nov 2025

18:00

Venue

Estádio José Alvalade

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

59%

Sporting CP

1.68

23%

Draw

4.28

17%

Estrela

5.82

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

10.6%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

10.3%

Home win

1 – 1

10.2%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.95

Sporting CP xG

Total xG

2.92

0.96

Estrela xG

59%
23%
17%
Sporting CPDrawEstrela

1.68

59%

Home win

4.28

23%

Draw

5.82

17%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

56%

Over 2.5

1.79

44%

Under 2.5

2.27

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.85

46%

BTTS No

2.18

Clean Sheet

38%

Sporting CP

2.62

14%

Estrela

7.04

Win to Nil

23%

Sporting CP

4.42

2%

Estrela

40.95

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.4 5.2 2.5 0.8 0.2
1 10.6 10.2 4.9 1.6 0.4 0.1
2 10.3 9.9 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.1
3 6.7 6.5 3.1 1.0 0.2
4 3.3 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.1
5 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.951
λ Away (xG) 0.965
Total xG 2.916
League avg home goals 1.310
League avg away goals 1.326
Sporting CP attack strength 1.337
Sporting CP defence strength 0.737
Estrela attack strength 0.987
Estrela defence strength 1.114
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 45 / 45