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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 30

Kick-off

Sun 19 Apr 2026

18:15

Venue

Estádio José Alvalade

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

50%

Sporting CP

1.99

24%

Draw

4.13

26%

Benfica

3.91

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.5%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.2%

Home win

2 – 1

9.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.67

Sporting CP xG

Total xG

2.80

1.13

Benfica xG

50%
24%
26%
Sporting CPDrawBenfica

1.99

50%

Home win

4.13

24%

Draw

3.91

26%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

31%

Over 3.5

3.23

69%

Under 3.5

1.45

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

55%

BTTS Yes

1.82

45%

BTTS No

2.22

Clean Sheet

32%

Sporting CP

3.08

19%

Benfica

5.33

Win to Nil

16%

Sporting CP

6.14

5%

Benfica

20.83

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.1 6.8 3.9 1.4 0.4 0.1
1 10.2 11.5 6.5 2.4 0.7 0.2
2 8.5 9.6 5.4 2.0 0.6 0.1
3 4.8 5.4 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 2.0 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.1
5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.674
λ Away (xG) 1.126
Total xG 2.800
League avg home goals 1.478
League avg away goals 1.139
Sporting CP attack strength 1.563
Sporting CP defence strength 0.785
Benfica attack strength 1.258
Benfica defence strength 0.725
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 62 / 63