Sporting CP 1-0 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sporting CP at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sporting CP vs Benfica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sporting CP host Benfica at Estádio José Alvalade in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 December 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sporting CP — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio José Alvalade, Sporting CP have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Alvalade. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Sporting CP are significantly better at Estádio José Alvalade than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Benfica's 2.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Sporting CP's 2.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sporting CP, 2 for Benfica and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Sporting CP winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sporting CP trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Benfica trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 49% versus Benfica 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sporting CP 76% | Benfica 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 1.59 xG and Benfica 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.428 / defence 0.948 | Benfica attack 1.182 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.122. Sporting CP carry an above-average attack strength of 1.428 — their λ of 1.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Sporting CP games / 49 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 45% | Draw 25% | Benfica 30%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Benfica 3.33. Sporting CP hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Benfica (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sporting CP offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Sporting CP 30% | Benfica 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Dec 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 45% | Draw 25% | Benfica 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Sporting CP 1.59 / Benfica 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 1.428 / def 0.948 | Benfica attack 1.182 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Benfica xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sporting CP vs Benfica kick off?
Sporting CP vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 29 December 2024 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Sporting CP 1 - 0 Benfica.
Where is Sporting CP vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs Benfica part of?
Sporting CP vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 45% chance of winning, Benfica a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sporting CP and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Sporting CP vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Benfica?
Record (6 meetings): Sporting CP 2W | Draws 2 | Benfica 2W.
What form are Sporting CP and Benfica in?
Sporting CP (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Benfica (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sporting CP's attack at 1.43x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Sporting CP's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
45%
2.22
25%
4.03
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
2.85
1.26
Benfica xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
6%
16.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sporting CP and 1.26 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sporting CP's recent record stands at 41W 4D 4L from 49 games, a 2.59 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 37W 7D 5L across 49 games — 2.41 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sporting CP on 2.59 PPG, Benfica on 2.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sporting CP have managed 23W 0D 1L from 24 games — 2.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 14W 5D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.96 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Benfica's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sporting CP are averaging 2.84 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.33 scored and 0.73 conceded. Sporting CP's scoring rate against Benfica's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games; Benfica in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sporting CP and Benfica in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 41W 4D 4L in their last 49 games (2.59 PPG), while Benfica have gone 37W 7D 5L in their last 49 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or Benfica away?
Sporting CP's home record (2.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 2.88 PPG; Benfica away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Benfica in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sporting CP's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sporting CP
4
Draws
3
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Sporting CP have won 3, Benfica have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sporting CP 1-2 Benfica.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sporting CP 46%, Benfica 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Sporting CP and 50% for Benfica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Benfica in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sporting CP play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 50% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sporting CP vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Sporting CP's matches and 50% of Benfica's.
Do Sporting CP and Benfica tend to score early?
Sporting CP have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Benfica in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Benfica 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Benfica 1-0 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.59 xG and Benfica 1.26 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Benfica landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.43 / defence 0.95 against Benfica attack 1.18 / defence 0.81, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 45% | Draw 25% | Benfica 30%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 76%, Benfica 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Benfica's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sporting CP 2.59 PPG, Benfica 2.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sporting CP win broke the near-deadlock. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.