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Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Arouca.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Arouca 6-0 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.67 xG and Arouca 1.10 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Sporting CP beat their projection by 4.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arouca landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.22 / defence 0.91 against Arouca attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 51% | Draw 24% | Arouca 25%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 66%, Arouca 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sporting CP's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Arouca's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sporting CP (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights