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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Braga and Famalicao share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 30, as SC Braga and Famalicao drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.71 xG and Famalicao 0.93 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Famalicao outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.29 / defence 0.90 against Famalicao attack 0.90 / defence 0.90, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Braga 56% | Draw 24% | Famalicao 20%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 56%, Famalicao 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Braga's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Famalicao's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Braga (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights