SC Braga vs Estoril – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Braga's attack at 1.21x the league average against Estoril's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estoril's attack versus SC Braga's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
60%
1.66
21%
4.66
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
SC Braga xG
Total xG
2.95
0.98
Estoril xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
14%
7.12
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
38.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Braga vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are SC Braga and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for SC Braga and 0.98 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Braga vs Estoril?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.