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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Braga and AVS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga and AVS finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 3, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 2.08 xG and AVS 0.91 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. AVS outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.17 / defence 0.87 against AVS attack 0.88 / defence 1.25, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it SC Braga 64% | Draw 20% | AVS 15%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 50%, AVS 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Braga's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

AVS's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Braga (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AVS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights