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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant SC Braga run riot with a 4-1 hammering of AVS.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga beat AVS 4-1 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.98 xG and AVS 0.71 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. SC Braga beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.21 / defence 0.88 against AVS attack 0.69 / defence 1.29, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Braga 67% | Draw 20% | AVS 13%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 50%, AVS 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Braga's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

AVS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. SC Braga (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. AVS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights