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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 7

Kick-off

Sat 27 Sep 2025

16:30

Venue

Estádio de São Miguel

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Santa Clara Win

58%

Santa Clara

1.72

28%

Draw

3.52

13%

Tondela

7.43

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

19.1%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

14.0%

Home win

0 – 0

13.0%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.47

Santa Clara xG

Total xG

2.04

0.57

Tondela xG

58%
28%
13%
Santa ClaraDrawTondela

1.72

58%

Home win

3.52

28%

Draw

7.43

13%

Away win

Goals Markets

60%

Over 1.5

1.67

40%

Under 1.5

2.50

33%

Over 2.5

3.03

67%

Under 2.5

1.49

15%

Over 3.5

6.67

85%

Under 3.5

1.18

6%

Over 4.5

16.67

94%

Under 4.5

1.06

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

35%

BTTS Yes

2.89

65%

BTTS No

1.53

Clean Sheet

56%

Santa Clara

1.77

23%

Tondela

4.34

Win to Nil

33%

Santa Clara

3.05

3%

Tondela

32.24

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 13.0 7.5 2.1 0.4 0.1
1 19.1 10.9 3.1 0.6 0.1
2 14.0 8.0 2.3 0.4 0.1
3 6.8 3.9 1.1 0.2
4 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.1
5 0.7 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.467
λ Away (xG) 0.573
Total xG 2.040
League avg home goals 1.297
League avg away goals 1.211
Santa Clara attack strength 0.834
Santa Clara defence strength 0.863
Tondela attack strength 0.549
Tondela defence strength 1.356
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 40 / 6