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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 29

Kick-off

Sat 11 Apr 2026

18:00

Venue

Estádio de São Miguel

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Santa Clara Win

44%

Santa Clara

2.29

29%

Draw

3.49

28%

Rio Ave

3.60

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

13.6%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

13.1%

Draw

0 – 0

10.7%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.28

Santa Clara xG

Total xG

2.24

0.96

Rio Ave xG

44%
29%
28%
Santa ClaraDrawRio Ave

2.29

44%

Home win

3.49

29%

Draw

3.60

28%

Away win

Goals Markets

65%

Over 1.5

1.54

35%

Under 1.5

2.86

39%

Over 2.5

2.56

61%

Under 2.5

1.64

19%

Over 3.5

5.26

81%

Under 3.5

1.23

8%

Over 4.5

12.50

92%

Under 4.5

1.09

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

45%

BTTS Yes

2.24

55%

BTTS No

1.81

Clean Sheet

38%

Santa Clara

2.61

28%

Rio Ave

3.59

Win to Nil

17%

Santa Clara

5.98

8%

Rio Ave

12.93

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.7 10.2 4.9 1.6 0.4 0.1
1 13.6 13.1 6.3 2.0 0.5 0.1
2 8.7 8.4 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.1
3 3.7 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.1
4 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.2
5 0.3 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.278
λ Away (xG) 0.959
Total xG 2.237
League avg home goals 1.529
League avg away goals 1.157
Santa Clara attack strength 0.803
Santa Clara defence strength 0.917
Rio Ave attack strength 0.904
Rio Ave defence strength 1.041
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 62 / 62