Santa Clara vs Rio Ave – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Santa Clara's attack at 0.83x the league average against Rio Ave's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rio Ave's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.75
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.27
0.82
Rio Ave xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
5%
20.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Rio Ave expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Santa Clara and 0.82 for Rio Ave, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.