Santa Clara 1-0 Rio Ave – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Santa Clara at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santa Clara vs Rio Ave encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Santa Clara welcome Rio Ave to Estádio de São Miguel. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Santa Clara — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 1L across 6 games at Estádio de São Miguel this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio de São Miguel.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rio Ave stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rio Ave, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rio Ave's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Santa Clara carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Santa Clara, 2 for Rio Ave and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Rio Ave winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Santa Clara in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Rio Ave in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 33% versus Rio Ave 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 33% | Rio Ave 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.46 xG and Rio Ave 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.828 / defence 0.909 | Rio Ave attack 0.806 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.114. Rio Ave bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Santa Clara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Santa Clara games / 46 Rio Ave games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 52% | Draw 27% | Rio Ave 21%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Rio Ave 4.76. Santa Clara hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Santa Clara as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Santa Clara 33% | Rio Ave 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Rio Ave | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 52% | Draw 27% | Rio Ave 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Santa Clara 1.46 / Rio Ave 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.828 / def 0.909 | Rio Ave attack 0.806 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Rio Ave xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Rio Ave kick off?
Santa Clara vs Rio Ave kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?
Santa Clara 1 - 0 Rio Ave.
Where is Santa Clara vs Rio Ave being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Rio Ave part of?
Santa Clara vs Rio Ave is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 52% chance of winning, Rio Ave a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Santa Clara and Rio Ave will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Rio Ave have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Rio Ave?
Record (2 meetings): Santa Clara 0W | Draws 0 | Rio Ave 2W.
What form are Santa Clara and Rio Ave in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Rio Ave (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Santa Clara's attack at 0.83x the league average against Rio Ave's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rio Ave's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.75
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.27
0.82
Rio Ave xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
5%
20.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.2 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Rio Ave expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Santa Clara and 0.82 for Rio Ave, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Santa Clara's recent record stands at 8W 0D 4L from 12 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rio Ave, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 5L across 12 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rio Ave is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Santa Clara by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rio Ave heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Santa Clara have managed 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Santa Clara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rio Ave's away record stands at 1W 0D 5L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rio Ave's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santa Clara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Rio Ave are on 1.08 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Defensively: Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
Rio Ave
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Rio Ave in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 8W 0D 4L in their last 12 games (2.00 PPG), while Rio Ave have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Rio Ave away?
Santa Clara's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 2.50 PPG; Rio Ave away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or Rio Ave been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Rio Ave in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Santa Clara's record when hosting Rio Ave specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Santa Clara
2
Draws
3
Rio Ave
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Rio Ave?
From 6 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 1, Rio Ave have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Rio Ave last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Santa Clara 0-2 Rio Ave.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Rio Ave?
Rio Ave have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Rio Ave are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Santa Clara 33% BTTS, Rio Ave 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Santa Clara) and 50% (Rio Ave).
On the defensive side: Santa Clara keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Rio Ave in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Rio Ave away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Rio Ave?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 17% of Rio Ave's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs Rio Ave usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Santa Clara's recent games and 50% of Rio Ave's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and Rio Ave tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rio Ave in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Santa Clara edge out Rio Ave 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Rio Ave 1-0 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.46 xG and Rio Ave 0.82 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rio Ave landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.83 / defence 0.91 against Rio Ave attack 0.81 / defence 1.23, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 52% | Draw 27% | Rio Ave 21%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 33%, Rio Ave 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rio Ave's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Rio Ave (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.