Santa Clara 2-0 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Santa Clara at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santa Clara vs Pacos Ferreira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santa Clara host Pacos Ferreira at Estádio de São Miguel in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 May 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estádio de São Miguel, Santa Clara have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Santa Clara are significantly better at Estádio de São Miguel than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Pacos Ferreira have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pacos Ferreira away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Santa Clara 1.30 PPG, Pacos Ferreira 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Santa Clara have won 0, Pacos Ferreira 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Pacos Ferreira winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Pacos Ferreira in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 59% versus Pacos Ferreira 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 56% | Pacos Ferreira 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.35 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 1.042 / defence 1.168 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.613 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 1.159. Pacos Ferreira bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Santa Clara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Santa Clara games / 32 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 48% | Draw 30% | Pacos Ferreira 22%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Pacos Ferreira 4.55. Santa Clara hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santa Clara at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Santa Clara 70% | Pacos Ferreira 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 48% | Draw 30% | Pacos Ferreira 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Santa Clara 1.35 / Pacos Ferreira 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 1.042 / def 1.168 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.613 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.072 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Pacos Ferreira xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Santa Clara vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Pacos Ferreira?
Santa Clara 2 - 0 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Santa Clara vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Santa Clara vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 48% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Santa Clara and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Pacos Ferreira?
Record (1 meetings): Santa Clara 0W | Draws 0 | Pacos Ferreira 1W.
What form are Santa Clara and Pacos Ferreira in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Santa Clara's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Pacos Ferreira's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Pacos Ferreira's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
48%
2.08
30%
3.35
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.18
0.83
Pacos Ferreira xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
6%
17.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Santa Clara and 0.83 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Santa Clara have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 8W 13D 11L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Pacos Ferreira's form line: 9W 11D 12L from 32 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santa Clara on 1.16 PPG, Pacos Ferreira on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Santa Clara have posted 1.69 PPG from 16 outings (7W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Santa Clara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pacos Ferreira have gone 4W 5D 7L from 16 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santa Clara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.91 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Current Season
Pacos Ferreira
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 8W 13D 11L in their last 32 games (1.16 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 9W 11D 12L in their last 32 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
Santa Clara's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.69 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or Pacos Ferreira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Pacos Ferreira in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Santa Clara's record when hosting Pacos Ferreira specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Santa Clara
1
Draws
2
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Pacos Ferreira?
From 4 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 1, Pacos Ferreira have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 1-0 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Pacos Ferreira?
Pacos Ferreira have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 56%, Pacos Ferreira 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Santa Clara) and 25% (Pacos Ferreira).
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira in 38%; Pacos Ferreira in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Pacos Ferreira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 31% of Pacos Ferreira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Santa Clara's recent games and 25% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Santa Clara cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pacos Ferreira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Pacos Ferreira 2-0 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.35 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.83 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pacos Ferreira landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 1.04 / defence 1.17 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.61 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 48% | Draw 30% | Pacos Ferreira 22%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 56%, Pacos Ferreira 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santa Clara 1.16 PPG, Pacos Ferreira 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santa Clara win broke the near-deadlock. Santa Clara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.