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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 33

Kick-off

Mon 11 May 2026

20:15

Venue

Estádio de São Miguel

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Santa Clara Win

40%

Santa Clara

2.50

30%

Draw

3.34

30%

Nacional

3.33

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

14.2%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

13.4%

Draw

0 – 0

12.6%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.13

Santa Clara xG

Total xG

2.07

0.94

Nacional xG

40%
30%
30%
Santa ClaraDrawNacional

2.50

40%

Home win

3.34

30%

Draw

3.33

30%

Away win

Goals Markets

61%

Over 1.5

1.64

39%

Under 1.5

2.56

34%

Over 2.5

2.94

66%

Under 2.5

1.52

16%

Over 3.5

6.25

84%

Under 3.5

1.19

6%

Over 4.5

16.67

94%

Under 4.5

1.06

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

41%

BTTS Yes

2.42

59%

BTTS No

1.71

Clean Sheet

39%

Santa Clara

2.56

32%

Nacional

3.11

Win to Nil

16%

Santa Clara

6.41

10%

Nacional

10.34

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 12.6 11.8 5.6 1.7 0.4 0.1
1 14.2 13.4 6.3 2.0 0.5 0.1
2 8.1 7.6 3.6 1.1 0.3
3 3.1 2.9 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.134
λ Away (xG) 0.941
Total xG 2.075
League avg home goals 1.479
League avg away goals 1.137
Santa Clara attack strength 0.830
Santa Clara defence strength 0.985
Nacional attack strength 0.841
Nacional defence strength 0.924
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 66 / 66