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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 27

Kick-off

Sun 30 Mar 2025

15:30

Venue

Estádio de São Miguel

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Santa Clara Win

42%

Santa Clara

2.36

31%

Draw

3.19

26%

Nacional

3.82

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

16.6%

Home win

Most likely

0 – 0

15.1%

Draw

1 – 1

13.1%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.10

Santa Clara xG

Total xG

1.89

0.79

Nacional xG

42%
31%
26%
Santa ClaraDrawNacional

2.36

42%

Home win

3.19

31%

Draw

3.82

26%

Away win

Goals Markets

56%

Over 1.5

1.79

44%

Under 1.5

2.27

29%

Over 2.5

3.45

71%

Under 2.5

1.41

12%

Over 3.5

8.33

88%

Under 3.5

1.14

4%

Over 4.5

25.00

96%

Under 4.5

1.04

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

37%

BTTS Yes

2.74

63%

BTTS No

1.58

Clean Sheet

45%

Santa Clara

2.21

33%

Nacional

3.00

Win to Nil

19%

Santa Clara

5.22

9%

Nacional

11.44

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 15.1 12.0 4.8 1.3 0.2
1 16.6 13.1 5.2 1.4 0.3
2 9.1 7.2 2.9 0.8 0.2
3 3.3 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.098
λ Away (xG) 0.794
Total xG 1.892
League avg home goals 1.331
League avg away goals 1.123
Santa Clara attack strength 0.756
Santa Clara defence strength 1.027
Nacional attack strength 0.689
Nacional defence strength 1.092
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 26 / 26