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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 2

Kick-off

Sun 17 Aug 2025

18:00

Venue

Estádio de São Miguel

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Santa Clara Win

43%

Santa Clara

2.31

27%

Draw

3.71

30%

Moreirense

3.36

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.7%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.7%

Home win

0 – 1

9.3%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.38

Santa Clara xG

Total xG

2.47

1.09

Moreirense xG

43%
27%
30%
Santa ClaraDrawMoreirense

2.31

43%

Home win

3.71

27%

Draw

3.36

30%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

45%

Over 2.5

2.22

55%

Under 2.5

1.82

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

2.01

50%

BTTS No

1.99

Clean Sheet

34%

Santa Clara

2.98

25%

Moreirense

3.96

Win to Nil

15%

Santa Clara

6.90

8%

Moreirense

13.31

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.5 9.3 5.1 1.8 0.5 0.1
1 11.7 12.7 7.0 2.5 0.7 0.2
2 8.0 8.8 4.8 1.7 0.5 0.1
3 3.7 4.0 2.2 0.8 0.2
4 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.376
λ Away (xG) 1.093
Total xG 2.469
League avg home goals 1.361
League avg away goals 1.159
Santa Clara attack strength 0.978
Santa Clara defence strength 0.912
Moreirense attack strength 1.033
Moreirense defence strength 1.034
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 35 / 35