Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Santa Clara (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Santa Clara face GIL Vicente.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santa Clara host GIL Vicente at in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 November 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Santa Clara — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara at this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIL Vicente stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Santa Clara have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Santa Clara hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 2 for GIL Vicente, with 1 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Santa Clara winning.
The historical record gives Santa Clara a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
GIL Vicente in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 41% versus GIL Vicente 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 36% | GIL Vicente 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.23 xG and GIL Vicente 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 1.059 / defence 0.809 | GIL Vicente attack 0.905 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.346. Data: 44 Santa Clara games / 43 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 42% | Draw 29% | GIL Vicente 30%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | GIL Vicente 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santa Clara at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Santa Clara 30% | GIL Vicente 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 42% | Draw 29% | GIL Vicente 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Santa Clara 1.23 / GIL Vicente 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 1.059 / def 0.809 | GIL Vicente attack 0.905 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
0.98
GIL Vicente xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente is scheduled to kick off at 15:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026.
What competition is Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente part of?
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 42% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Santa Clara and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and GIL Vicente?
Record (8 meetings): Santa Clara 5W | Draws 1 | GIL Vicente 2W.
What form are Santa Clara and GIL Vicente in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. GIL Vicente (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Santa Clara's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
42%
2.40
29%
3.48
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.21
0.98
GIL Vicente xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
9%
11.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Santa Clara and 0.98 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Santa Clara come into this having played 44 games, going 15W 12D 17L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 1.48 PPG from 44 outings (17W 14D 13L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santa Clara on 1.30 PPG, GIL Vicente on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Santa Clara's home form reads 9W 4D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 1.29 points per game from 21 outings (6W 9D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.25 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; GIL Vicente in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 15W 12D 17L in their last 44 games (1.30 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 17W 14D 13L in their last 44 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or GIL Vicente away?
Santa Clara's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.48 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Santa Clara's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Santa Clara
1
Draws
2
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and GIL Vicente?
From 8 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 5, GIL Vicente have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Santa Clara 1-0 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and GIL Vicente?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 38%, GIL Vicente 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Santa Clara) and 52% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: Santa Clara keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; GIL Vicente in 38%; Santa Clara have failed to score in 29% of games; GIL Vicente in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 48% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Santa Clara's recent games and 52% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.